Water FractalTier 2
at 台中 Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.6% | -4.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 7 | 2-3-2 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 43.8% | -3.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.4% | +15.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.4% | +10.9 |
| Water Genbu | 4.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.7% | +11.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 59.3% | +5.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.7% | +6.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.1 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -2.9 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.5 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.9% | +23.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 41 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fight for the Crown | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |